政大商學院信義不動產研究中心 | 政策法令、專業知識、新聞訊息、演講論壇

【工商時報】房市冷近2成民眾估未來半年房價跌逾3％

國泰金控22日公布11月國民經濟信心調查結果，在時事題方面，有19.6％的受訪者預期未來半年房價跌逾3％，比今年1月調查時多出16.1個百分點，認為未來半年房價還會漲逾3％者，則從1月的78.7％，急降到48.9％，跌破五成。

房價看跌，11月有73％的受訪者認為現在不是買房時機，僅13.6％認為可以買房，買房意願指數-59.4，依舊是2016年9月之後的低點。

在11月23日《關於做好當前金融支持房地產市場平穩健康發展工作的通知》(業內稱“金融16條”)正式公開發布後次日，又有建設銀行、工商銀行、郵儲銀行等三家國有大行與房企簽署戰略合作協議，至此，國有六大行均進一步深化銀企合作，助力房地產市場平穩健康發展。

11月22日召開的國務院常務會議提出，“落實因城施策支持剛性和改善性住房需求的政策，指導地方加強政策宣傳解讀。推進保交樓專項借款盡快全面落到項目，激勵商業銀行新發放保交樓貸款，加快項目建設和交付。努力改善房地產行業資產負債狀況，促進房地產市場健康發展。”

11月24日，銀保監會相關部門負責人表示，銀保監會積極推動支持“保交樓、穩民生”，目前“保交樓”專項借款資金已基本投放至項目。大型銀行進一步加大工作力度，積極促進房地產市場平穩健康發展，存在不少亮點做法；股份制銀行也已面向部分民營房企開展保函置換預售資金業務，保障房地產融資平穩有序。

Claudia Buch, vice president of the Bundesbank, told CNBC there had not been a reversal of the “overall dynamic” in the housing market so there would still be overvaluations.
German homeowners are less vulnerable to interest rate rises than some elsewhere due to the high proportion of fixed-rate mortgages.
The central bank’s Financial Stability Review for 2022 says the German economy is at a “turning point” following price corrections in financial markets.

Zillow’s forecast for existing home sales in 2022 was revised down slightly as leading indicators point to continued slowing in the housing market in the near term.
Expectations for continued weakness in home sales volume led Zillow’s one-year home value forecast to be revised downward in November
Zillow projects typical U.S. home values to fall 0.6% from October 2022 to January 2023, before recovering and posting 0.8% growth by the end of October 2023.

There were 632,000 new home sales nationwide in October (SAAR), up 7.5% from the revised September rate of 588,000. However, new home sales are down 5.8% from October 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $493,000 – up 15.4% from October 2021.
The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000, a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.