信義看法 市場展望：

｜央行態度軟著陸  加強金檢持續監控房市

｜FED態度保守  觀察美國川普上任後政策

｜台灣經濟持續看好  房市前景審慎樂觀

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本期重點有四：

• Q4房市交易量降溫
• 六都房市止漲 交易量縮
• 看漲房價風向轉變 美國政策影響股市與房市
• 理財高手的 房產節稅時事題

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• 本季普通家戶數為 8,383,674 戶，較上季增加 0.45%，較去年同季增加 1.61%；住宅存量總計 9,394,386 宅，較上季增加 0.31%，較去 年同季增加 1.46%；住宅家戶比 112.06 %，較上季減少 0.16 個百分點，較去年同季減少 0.15 個百分點。
• 本季住宅建造執照核發宅數 38,939 宅，較上季增加 49.63%，較 去年同季增加 8.15%；住宅使用執照核發宅數 32,477 宅，較上季增加 3.25%，較去年同季增加 10.03%；住宅開工宅數 27,654 宅，較上季增加 9.46%，較去年同季減少 13.19%。

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• In Singapore, demand across all sectors was relatively lean in 2024, with small to medium sized firms accounting for the bulk of leasing transactions.
• Demand in mainland China remains subdued. Occupiers continue to pursue cost-saving strategies through relocation, restructuring and early renewals on favourable terms.

Zillow Economics predicts shelter CPI inflation – and the results remind us that unless active rental markets moderate even more, the U.S. economy as a whole will continue to grapple with the strain of rising costs of living well into 2025.

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• Building permits issued in December increased to 1,483,000 (SAAR). That’s 0.7%  below the revised November rate and still 3.1% lower than a year ago.
• Housing starts increased  to 1,499,000 (SAAR) in December, up 15.8% from the revised November estimate but 4.4% lower than a year ago, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. An estimated 1,364,100 housing units were started in 2024. This represents 3.9% fewer starts than in 2023.