信義看法 市場展望

｜川普2.0 全球股匯市場波動加劇 

｜央行信用管制成效佳 房市回歸理性

｜台灣經濟溫和成長 通膨壓力因素仍在

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營建業方面，住宅市場景氣走弱，加上營造業者成本壓力仍高，惟 多數民生交通建設工程持續推動，有助於營造業對當月景氣持平看待； 多數民生交通工程如期推進，國營事業釋出天然氣機組統包工程，捷運 汐東線也將於3月開工，使營造業者認為未來半年展望趨向好轉。雖工作 天數增加，帶動北部建物買賣回升，以及科技業仍支撐工業不動產需求 ，但受央行信用管制、打炒房政策持續，以及新青安刺激政策效應減弱 影響，故住宅市場交易量仍顯不足，不動產市場景氣仍以保守視之。

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據實價登錄資料顯示，去年台北辦公市場成交近200件屋齡逾30年以上的辦公室交易，等同於去年一個禮拜就賣出約三間大齡辦公室。信義全球資產公司表示，台北走向大重建時代，精華地段土地資源稀缺，買方著眼老商辦後續重建效益，是近期大齡辦公室交易增溫的關鍵。2024年台北辦公室交易屋齡級距，10年內交易件數有109件、佔總件數24%；10年至20年交易件數有74件、佔16%；20年至30年交易件數有84件、佔19%；屋齡逾30年以上的辦公室交易件數則有182件、佔41%。

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• Pending home sales in February augmented 2.0%.
• Compared to one month ago, pending home sales declined in the Northeast and West, while the Midwest – and especially the South – underwent increases.
• Year-over-year, contract signings declined in all four U.S. regions, with the Midwest showing the biggest decline.

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• Existing-home sales advanced 4.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million. Sales slipped 1.2% from one year ago.
• The median existing-home sales price rose 3.8% from February 2024 to $398,400, the 20th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
• The inventory of unsold existing homes climbed 5.1% from the prior month to 1.24 million at the end of February, or the equivalent of 3.5 months' supply at the current monthly sales pace.

• There were 676,000 (SAAR) new single family home sales nationwide in February. That’s a 1.8% increase from the revised January rate of 664,000. Sales of newly built homes are 5.1% above the February 2024 estimate, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• The median price of new houses sold was $414,500, down 1.5% from a year ago.