【中央社】去年12月景氣燈號續亮第2顆藍燈 經濟依舊疲弱低迷
國發會今天公布去年12月景氣燈號，受到終端需求疲軟、產業鏈持續調整庫存等影響，景氣燈號綜合判斷分數12分，與去年11月持平，連續第2個月亮出代表「景氣低迷」的藍燈。領先指標部分連續13個月下降，累計跌幅8.1%，同時指標連續10個月下降，累計跌幅為12.1%。雖然景氣、領先指標仍呈下跌，但可以看到近期領先指標的跌幅縮小，希望這個情勢持續下去，景氣就有機會好轉。
【中央社】利空因素籠罩 國泰房地產指數估2023房市量縮價跌
國泰房地產指數認為，全球經濟下行風險上升，台灣出口連續4個月負成長，中央銀行大幅下修2022年全年經濟成長率為2.91%，並於12月中旬再升息半碼，以抑制通膨預期心理；隨著景氣趨緩、股市震盪，近期房市交易明顯減緩，加上平均地權條例修法通過，將進一步抑制投資炒作行為、健全房市交易秩序。國泰房地產指數分析，綜合去年第4季房市，相較2021年同期，遞延推案在地方大選後釋出，使推案金額小幅增加，帶動成交價大漲，然而成交量及銷售率皆下滑，房市表現有待觀察。
【中央社】房市降溫 12月建築貸款餘額年增率創3年半新低
中央銀行今天公布2022年12月房貸餘額新台幣9兆3773億元，月增569億元，年增率更是連續9個月下滑、降至6.52%，創下2020年3月以來最低紀錄。素有建商信心風向球之稱的建築貸款餘額反映同樣趨勢，12月建築貸款餘額3兆979億元，月增141億元，不只增額持續縮水，年增率10.31%也創下2019年7月以來的新低。
【鉅亨網】2022全台房產移轉31.8萬創3年低 買賣衰退、繼承贈與量增
官方全台移轉數據完整出爐，2022 全年建物買賣移轉 31.8 萬棟，跌破 32 萬棟，且創近 3 年以來新低；相較於買賣交易出現明顯衰退，建物繼承及贈與登記卻較前一年度成長。值得留意的是，2022 年房市出現先盛後衰，下半年移轉比起上半年減少了 14%，近半年的市況比全年呈現的數字還要清淡。
【CNBC】Euro zone economy posts surprise expansion in the fourth quarter, curbing recession fears
- Preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday showed the euro zone grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
- Economists had pointed to a 0.1% contraction over the same period, according to Reuters.
- Energy prices cooled off in the latter part of 2022, bringing some relief to the euro zone’s broader economic performance.
【CNBC】Mortgage rates drop to the 5% range for the first time since September
- The average rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has fallen to 5.99%, Mortgage News Daily said.
- The rate started this week at 6.21% and fell sharply Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation “has eased somewhat but remains elevated.”
- For someone buying a $400,000 home today with a 20% down payment, the monthly payment is $293 less than it would have been in October.
【World Property Journal】Asia Pacific Commercial Investment Dives 27 Percent in 2022
According to data by global real estate consultant JLL, commercial real estate investment in Asia Pacific in 2022 declined by 27% year-on-year as a tightening interest rate cycle and global macroeconomic uncertainties influenced decision-making. Direct investment in Asia Pacific commercial real estate totaled $129 billion for the full-year 2022, in line with the firm's projections.
【World Property Journal】U.S. Multifamily Housing Market to Weaken in 2023
According to the National Association of Home Builders, multifamily starts are predicted to fall in 2023, following an unsustainable high level of production last year. Meanwhile, the remodeling sector remains on solid ground and will do better than the single-family and multifamily markets in 2023.
【Nationwide】2023 begins with further slowing in annual house price growth
- Annual house price growth slowed to 1.1%, from 2.8% in December
- January sees a further monthly decline, with prices now 3.2% below August’s peak
【Savills】Global investment activity not likely to rebound until H2 2023; core and value-add assets likely to benefit most
In its global real estate outlook for 2023, Savills World Research team says that capital value increases in most real estate sectors around the world in 2023 will be minimal, and rental growth prospects limited, but investment activity may rebound in H2.
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