【鉅亨網】台經院調查：政策因素致營造、不動產展望不同調
台灣經濟研究院25日公布 9 月營業氣候測驗點調查，營建業轉為微幅下滑 0.39 點，終結連 3 漲，台經院認為，未來半年營造業景氣可望成長，不過，房市景氣則審慎視之，營造和不動產業走勢將呈現不同調，關鍵原因在於政府政策。
【CNN】After a robust third quarter, US economic growth will likely slow. That bodes well for rate cuts next year.
The Commerce Department is set to report third-quarter gross domestic product Thursday. It’s the broadest measure of economic output, and it’ll likely show that the US economy expanded at a staggeringly rapid pace from July through September, despite higher interest rates, depleted pandemic savings and high inflation.
【World Property Journal】New Home Construction Mortgage Applications Spike 15 Percent in September
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Builder Application Survey data for September 2023, U.S. mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 14.9 percent compared from a year ago. Compared to August 2023, applications decreased by 12 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
【CNBC】U.S. and China commercial property markets face headwinds but UOB is optimistic on Southeast Asia
- Commercial real estate markets in the U.S. and China are economic pain points to monitor in a higher-for-longer rate environment, said Singapore’s United Overseas Bank.
- But the bank remains optimistic about one key region, citing investment flows particularly in the new economy area such as sustainability.
【CNBC】European Central Bank holds interest rates steady after 10 consecutive hikes
- The European Central Bank’s key interest rate will remain at 4% as it opted to pause in October after 10 consecutive hikes.
- The ECB repeated its message that rates at current levels would help bring inflation to target if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration.”
- The Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve all held rates steady in September.
【國泰建設】112年第三季國泰房地產指數季報
2023年第3季國泰台北市房地產指數，相較上一季與去年同季皆為價穩量縮。本季開價維持穩定，議價率中幅擴大，成交價維持穩定；推案金額小幅減少，銷售率中幅減少，成交戶數大幅減少。由於全球經貿成長力道仍緩，國內經濟成長不如預期，央行下修今年全年經濟成長率為1.46%，並維持政策利率不變建築貸款與購置住宅貸款餘額成長持續走緩，房市信用管制則未再調整。隨「健全房地產市場方案」措施陸續推出，行政院會9月21日通過房屋稅條例部分條文修正草案目前立法院進行審議中，預期效果將持續發酵。
【不動產估價師公會】112年10月不動產估價月刊
國際預測機構 S&PGlobal 9 月 15 日最新預測，2023 全年經濟成長率 2.6%，較上月 上調 0.1 個百分點，其中上調上半年，但下修 Q4，顯示近期動能展望仍不樂觀；112 年 8 月景氣對策信號綜合判斷分數為 15 分，與上月持平，燈號續呈藍燈；景氣領 先指標持續下滑，同時指標續呈回升，顯示國內景氣略微改善，但仍須密切關注後續變化。
【台灣經濟研究院】112年10月景氣動向調查
在營造業方面，有鑑於政府為達成年度執行目標，積極推動各項公共工程進展，促使土木工程業者加快施作進度，故工程款收入入帳情形良好，故2023年9月營造業景氣以好轉視之。展望未來，鑑於政府2024年公建預算達5,886億元，續創歷史新高，加之前瞻基礎建設計畫持續進行，均有利於土木工程業後續景氣發展，因此未來半年營造業景氣以成長看待。
【CBRE】U.S. Building Performance Standards in 2023 and Beyond
In November 2022, CBRE Econometric Advisors published a report outlining how local and state government mandatory regulations are aimed at combating greenhouse gas emissions in the real estate sector. Over the past decade, these mandatory Building Performance Standards policies have gained momentum, as an increasing number of local jurisdictions act to mitigate climate change impacts and support building decarbonization. In 2023, 10 more local jurisdictions across the country joined the growing list of BPS implementation.
【CBRE】Economic Watch: Fed Still Unlikely to Boost Rates Despite Strong Q3 GDP Growth
- U.S. GDP increased by 4.9% on an annualized basis in Q3, exceeding expectations of 4.7%.
- Although this strong growth complicates the fight against inflation, we continue to believe that the Fed is done hiking interest rates.
- CBRE expects that economic growth will slow in the fourth quarter and remain sluggish next year. The rapid rise of long-term interest rates will significantly restrain growth.
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