國際預測機構 S&P Global 8 月 15 日最新預測，2023 全年經濟成長率 2.5%，較上月上調 0.1 個百分點。主要國家中，除美國續較上月上調外，歐、亞主要國家地區經濟成長動能均呈平疲，其中歐元區、日本、中國大陸、南韓持平，新加坡下修 0.2 個百分點，香港亦下修 0.6 個百分點。

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領先指標不含趨勢指數為 99.06，較上月下降 0.30%。7 個構成項目經去除長期趨勢後，4 項較上月上升，包括製造業營業氣候測驗點、股價指數、建築物開工樓地板面積、外銷訂單動向指數；其餘 3 項則較上月下滑，分別為：實質半導體設備進口值、工業及服務業受僱員工淨進入率、實質貨幣總計數 M1B。

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營建業方面，受惠於8月有多項公共工程新案陸續啟動，商辦建 設熱度提高，加上未來政府建設力道仍大，故營造業看好當月與未來半 年景氣表現，而不動產業雖因平均地權條例修正案對預售屋市場造成衝擊，但因部分買方轉往成屋市場，加上青年安心成家2.0政策正式上路， 對於房市交易量具正面效益。

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• Competition in the housing market is cooling off remarkably fast, even for this time of year, and sellers are cutting list prices more often than at any time except last year
• The drought of new listings, which kept options scarce and competition high, eased a little last month
• This fall might be a sweet spot for home buyers who have room in their budget to deal with higher mortgage rates

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• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in August, after rising 0.2% in July. Annual growth in the PCE price index rose to 3.5% in August from 3.4% in July.
• Core PCE – which excludes food and energy – slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.2% in July. The annual increase in core PCE fell to 3.9% – down from 4.3% in July.
• Annual services inflation moderated to 4.9% in August, down from 5.2% in July. The housing component of the index is up 7.4% from a year ago easing from 7.7% in July.

• Pending home sales slumped in August, down 7.1% from July.
• High interest rates have pushed mortgage rates above 7%, which has impacted home buying.
• Pending home sales dropped in all four U.S. regions month-over-month and compared to one year ago.

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