【Zillow】Forecasts for Existing and New Home Sales (May 2019)

Existing home sales

We expect May existing home sales, which will be released on Friday, June 20, by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), to grow from April unrevised figure – chipping away at the year-over-year deficit that has persisted since March 2018 caused by declines due to climbing mortgage rates, poor stock market performance and fears of a slowing economy. We should start to see positive year-over-year trends in the second half of the year.

Consumer confidence is strong, and mortgage applications for home purchases continue to climb steadily, although they have not yet risen at the pace that would be suggested by falling mortgage rates.

Affordability concerns form a headwind against those strong fundamentals. Home prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and inventory remains tight at the lower end of the market. Lower mortgage rates can only do so much to overcome those factors.

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