【World Property Journal】Half of U.S. Counties at Risk for Increased Rental Property Defaults in 2021

According to new research from RealtyTrac shows that single-family rental property owners in 48% of all U.S. counties are at above-average risk for default.

The RealtyTrac Rental Property Risk Report gauges the relative default risk of single-family rental homes, almost 90% of which are owned by mom-and-pop investors who own fewer than 10 properties. The financial impact of COVID-19, resulting job losses, and government-imposed eviction moratoria have all contributed to reduced on-time rental payments which, in turn, can lead to potential default among these smaller investors, many of whom are highly leveraged based on loan-to-value (LTV) ratio data. According to their research, the average risk score among the country's 3,143 counties is 50.2, with 1,514, or 48%, at above-average risk.

When looking at the largest 100 counties - based on the total number of properties - the average risk score is 43.6, with 53% at above-average risk. Among these large counties, Florida, New York, and California counties accounted for 44% of the 25 most at-risk counties. New York (Erie, Kings, Monroe, and New York Counties) and Florida (Collier, Lee, Polk, and Marion) each had four counties in the top 25 ranking, and California (Kern, Riverside, and San Bernardino) had three. Mohave County in Arizona was rated as the most at-risk of the 100 largest counties in the country.

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